摘要：将随机Wiener过程用于电机的剩余寿命预测，得到剩余寿命的概率密度函数及可靠度函数，为电机寿命预测提供了一种新的思路和方法。以电机发生匝间短路故障为例，利用EMD算法分析电磁转矩信号得到电机的性能退化参数（健康指数），并以此建立电机的Wiener过程性能退化模型，模型参数通过自助纠偏估计算法得到。仿真计算结果表明，本文提出的方法具有一定的可行性和实用价值。

关键词：经验模式分解；Wiener过程；健康指数；无刷直流电机；寿命预测

Abstract: Random wiener Process has been used for residual life prediction for BLDC, the probability density function and reliability function of the residual lifetime are obtained, which offers a new thinking and method for life prediction for motor. The interturn short circuit fault of the motor was taken as an example, the electromagnetic torque signals were analyzed by the mean of EMD, and then the performance degradation parameter（Health Index）of the motor was obtained. Based on this, the Wiener process performance degradation model of the BLDC was established, the model parameters were got by bootstrap rectify estimation. The simulation results show that the method in this paper has some feasibility and practical value.

Key words: empirical mode decomposition; wiener process; health index; BLDC; life prediction